Barnet vs Northampton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Hive Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Barnet the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barnet vs Northampton?
Barnet starts as the favourite with a 227-point Elo edge (1,884 vs 1,656).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barnet have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Northampton have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Arsenal U21(home) | 5-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cambridge United(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Barnet win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Northampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2016 | Northampton 3-0 Barnet | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2015 | Barnet 2-0 Northampton | League Two |
| Apr 27, 2013 | Northampton 2-0 Barnet | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2012 | Barnet 4-0 Northampton | League Two |
| Jan 21, 2012 | Northampton 1-2 Barnet | League Two |
| Oct 1, 2011 | Barnet 1-2 Northampton | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Barnet score 2.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barnet sit 1st in League Two (6 points from 2 matches) and Northampton sit 18th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barnet vs Northampton?
- The Footlab model makes Barnet the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Barnet vs Northampton played?
- Barnet vs Northampton is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Hive Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.