Northampton vs Gillingham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 29Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, East Midlands
The Footlab model makes Northampton the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northampton vs Gillingham?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Northampton (1,662) and Gillingham (1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northampton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Gillingham have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Northampton win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Gillingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | Northampton 2-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Nov 12, 2022 | Gillingham 0-2 Northampton | League Two |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Gillingham 2-2 Northampton | League One |
| Dec 29, 2020 | Northampton 3-1 Gillingham | League One |
| Feb 13, 2018 | Northampton 1-2 Gillingham | League One |
| Oct 21, 2017 | Gillingham 1-2 Northampton | League One |
Last archived meeting: Northampton vs Gillingham on Apr 10, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Northampton sit 18th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Gillingham sit 21st (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northampton vs Gillingham?
- The Footlab model makes Northampton the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Northampton vs Gillingham played?
- Northampton vs Gillingham is played on February 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sixfields Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.