Nova Cidade vs Carapebus: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 11Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Joaquim de Almeida Flores, Nilópolis, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Nova Cidade the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Carapebus. The most likely score is 1-1. If Nova Cidade wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nova Cidade vs Carapebus?
On Elo ratings, Nova Cidade has 1,452 points and Carapebus 1,405.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nova Cidade vs Carapebus
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nova Cidade
Not enough data to predict the Nova Cidade lineup.
Carapebus
Not enough data to predict the Carapebus lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 04:48 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nova Cidade have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Carapebus have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Campo Grande(home) | 3-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Audax Rio(away) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Niteroiense(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | São Cristóvão RJ(home) | 2-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Niteroiense(home) | 1-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Macaé(away) | 3-4 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | São Cristóvão RJ(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Artsul(away) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 1-4 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Nova Cidade win, 1 draw, 0 Carapebus wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2025 | Carapebus 0-2 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 30, 2021 | Nova Cidade 0-0 Carapebus | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Carapebus vs Nova Cidade on Sep 27, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nova Cidade score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Carapebus score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nova Cidade | 0.9 | 0.8 | 8 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
| Carapebus | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nova Cidade sit 10th in Carioca - 2 (5 points from 6 matches) and Carapebus sit 11th (1 point from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 11 | Carapebus | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
A question about Nova Cidade vs Carapebus?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nova Cidade vs Carapebus?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nova Cidade the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Carapebus.
- Where and when is Nova Cidade vs Carapebus played?
- Nova Cidade vs Carapebus is played on November 7, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Joaquim de Almeida Flores, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.