Petrópolis vs Duque de Caxias: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 11Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Atílio Marotti, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Duque de Caxias the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Petrópolis. The most likely score is 0-0. If Duque de Caxias wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Petrópolis vs Duque de Caxias?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Petrópolis (1,535) and Duque de Caxias (1,550).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Petrópolis vs Duque de Caxias
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Petrópolis
Not enough data to predict the Petrópolis lineup.
Duque de Caxias
4-3-3- RRafael de Sa Rodrigues
- MMatheus Cardoso de Souza
- DDudu
- HHarison
- BBruno Arrabal Passamani
- SSampson
- DDiego Evangelista dos Santos
- BBruno Moura
- BBruno Everton Ferreira de Sousa
- HHenrique Motta
- RRafael Roballo
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 12:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Petrópolis have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Duque de Caxias have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Macaé(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Artsul(home) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Campo Grande(away) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Audax Rio(home) | 3-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Goytacaz(away) | 2-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Campo Grande(away) | 3-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Audax Rio(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Goytacaz(away) | 1-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Niteroiense(home) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | São Cristóvão RJ(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Petrópolis win, 0 draws, 2 Duque de Caxias wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2025 | Duque de Caxias 1-0 Petrópolis | Carioca - 2 |
| May 17, 2025 | Duque de Caxias 0-2 Petrópolis | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Petrópolis 1-2 Duque de Caxias | Carioca A2 |
Last archived meeting: Duque de Caxias vs Petrópolis on Sep 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Petrópolis score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Duque de Caxias score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrópolis | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Duque de Caxias | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Petrópolis sit 5th in Carioca - 2 (10 points from 6 matches) and Duque de Caxias sit 2nd (15 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
A question about Petrópolis vs Duque de Caxias?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Petrópolis vs Duque de Caxias?
- The Footlab AI model makes Duque de Caxias the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Petrópolis.
- Where and when is Petrópolis vs Duque de Caxias played?
- Petrópolis vs Duque de Caxias is played on November 7, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Atílio Marotti, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.