Nublense vs Concepción: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónRegular Season - 21Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Chillán
The Footlab model makes Nublense the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Concepción. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nublense vs Concepción?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Nublense (1,808) and Concepción (1,738).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nublense have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Concepción have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | U. Catolica(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Union La Calera(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 11, 2026 | A. Italiano(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rangers de Talca(home) | 1-0 | Copa Chile |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Palestino(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cobresal(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | U. Catolica(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | O'Higgins(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Nublense win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Concepción win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Concepción 0-2 Nublense | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Concepción vs Nublense on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nublense score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Concepción score 1.6 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nublense | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Concepción | 1.6 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nublense sit 8th in Primera División (22 points from 15 matches) and Concepción sit 14th (14 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nublense | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 26 | 23 | 32 |
| 8 | Nublense | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 22 |
| 8 | Concepción | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 27 |
| 14 | Concepción | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nublense vs Concepción?
- The Footlab model makes Nublense the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Concepción.
- Where and when is Nublense vs Concepción played?
- Nublense vs Concepción is played on August 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.