Union La Calera vs D. La Serena: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónRegular Season - 21Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 10:15 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, La Calera
The Footlab model makes Union La Calera the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for D. La Serena. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union La Calera vs D. La Serena?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Union La Calera (1,701) and D. La Serena (1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union La Calera have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; D. La Serena have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | A. Italiano(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nublense(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Colo Colo(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Santiago Wanderers(away) | 4-0 | Copa Chile |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cobresal(away) | 0-4 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cobresal(home) | 3-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | O'Higgins(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | U. Catolica(away) | 3-3 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Union La Calera win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 D. La Serena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | D. La Serena 0-2 Union La Calera | Copa De La Liga |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Union La Calera 2-1 D. La Serena | Copa De La Liga |
| Mar 6, 2026 | D. La Serena 3-0 Union La Calera | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Union La Calera 1-1 D. La Serena | Primera División |
| Mar 16, 2025 | D. La Serena 1-0 Union La Calera | Primera División |
| Oct 30, 2022 | D. La Serena 2-1 Union La Calera | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: D. La Serena vs Union La Calera on Jun 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union La Calera score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; D. La Serena score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union La Calera | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| D. La Serena | 1.7 | 2.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union La Calera sit 16th in Primera División (12 points from 15 matches) and D. La Serena sit 12th (18 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | D. La Serena | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 31 | 34 | 24 |
| 12 | D. La Serena | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 28 | 12 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union La Calera vs D. La Serena?
- The Footlab model makes Union La Calera the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for D. La Serena.
- Where and when is Union La Calera vs D. La Serena played?
- Union La Calera vs D. La Serena is played on August 31, 2026 at 10:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.