Where and when is Numancia vs Calvo Sotelo played?

Numancia vs Calvo Sotelo is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Numancia vs Calvo Sotelo: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 10Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, Soria

Numancia

Calvo Sotelo

The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Calvo Sotelo. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Numancia vs Calvo Sotelo?

A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Numancia (1,941) and Calvo Sotelo (1,937).

Numancia win43 %

Draw28 %

Calvo Sotelo win29 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Numancia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Calvo Sotelo have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Numancia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Zaragoza(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 17, 2026	Poblense(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 10, 2026	Poblense(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Marino de Luanco(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Langreo(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Calvo Sotelo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	La Solana(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
May 3, 2026	Toledo(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
Apr 26, 2026	Cazalegas(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
Apr 19, 2026	Huracán Balazote(away)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
Apr 12, 2026	Guadalajara II(home)	4-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

How many goals should we expect?

Numancia score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Calvo Sotelo score 1.7 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Numancia	1.3	0.9	4	9/15	7/15
Calvo Sotelo	1.7	0.6	8	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Numancia vs Calvo Sotelo?: The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Calvo Sotelo.
Where and when is Numancia vs Calvo Sotelo played?: Numancia vs Calvo Sotelo is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.