Where and when is Numancia vs RSD Alcalá played?

Numancia vs RSD Alcalá is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Numancia vs RSD Alcalá: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, Soria

Numancia

RSD Alcalá

The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for RSD Alcalá. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Numancia vs RSD Alcalá?

A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Numancia (1,942) and RSD Alcalá (1,876).

Numancia win50 %

Draw27 %

RSD Alcalá win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Numancia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; RSD Alcalá have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Numancia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Zaragoza(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 17, 2026	Poblense(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 10, 2026	Poblense(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Marino de Luanco(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Langreo(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

RSD Alcalá
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Gimnástica Segoviana(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	CD Coria(home)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 26, 2026	Quintanar del Rey(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 19, 2026	Rayo Vallecano II(home)	3-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 12, 2026	Fuenlabrada(away)	2-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

How many goals should we expect?

Numancia score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; RSD Alcalá score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Numancia	1.3	0.9	4	9/15	7/15
RSD Alcalá	1.5	0.9	6	7/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	RSD Alcalá	34	14	9	11	42	39	51

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Numancia vs RSD Alcalá?: The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for RSD Alcalá.
Where and when is Numancia vs RSD Alcalá played?: Numancia vs RSD Alcalá is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.