A Madrid III vs Numancia: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Cerro del Espino Campo Artificial, Majadahonda
The Footlab AI model makes A Madrid III the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Numancia. The most likely score is 1-1. If A Madrid III wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,516 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win A Madrid III vs Numancia?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate A Madrid III (1,884) and Numancia (1,973).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for A Madrid III vs Numancia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
A Madrid III
Not enough data to predict the A Madrid III lineup.
Numancia
4-3-3- 9Jony González
- 14Alejandro Gil Rochina
- 26C. Godson
- 8M. Gning
- 5O. De Frutos
- 6N. Lucas Rey
- 2Marcos Sánchez
- 16Carlos Gutiérrez
- 22Fermín Ruiz
- 4Ian Olivera
- 1M. Abad
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, A Madrid III have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Numancia have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Navalcarnero(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Conquense(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Real Madrid III(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atlético Paso(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Numancia(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Ávila(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Getafe II(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Guadalajara(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | SS Reyes(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | A Madrid III(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 A Madrid III wins, 0 draws, 1 Numancia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Numancia 2-0 A Madrid III | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Numancia vs A Madrid III on Sep 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
A Madrid III score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Numancia score 1.2 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Madrid III | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Numancia | 1.2 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
A Madrid III sit 1st in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (13 points from 6 matches) and Numancia sit 3rd (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A Madrid III | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Numancia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
A question about A Madrid III vs Numancia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for A Madrid III vs Numancia?
- The Footlab AI model makes A Madrid III the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Numancia.
- Where and when is A Madrid III vs Numancia played?
- A Madrid III vs Numancia is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Cerro del Espino Campo Artificial, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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