Super Nova vs Grobiņa: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Slokas Stadiona
The Footlab model makes Super Nova the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Grobiņa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Super Nova vs Grobiņa?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Super Nova (1,554) and Grobiņa (1,496).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Super Nova have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Grobiņa have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FK Liepaja(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Auda(away) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 1-6 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Riga(away) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Super Nova win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Grobiņa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | Super Nova 2-0 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| May 20, 2026 | Grobiņa 0-2 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Grobiņa 0-1 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Grobiņa 0-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Super Nova 0-0 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| May 26, 2025 | Grobiņa 1-1 Super Nova | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Super Nova vs Grobiņa on Jul 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Super Nova score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Grobiņa score 0.8 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Grobiņa | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Super Nova sit 6th in Virsliga (28 points from 25 matches) and Grobiņa sit 8th (21 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Super Nova | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 28 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 50 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Super Nova vs Grobiņa?
- The Footlab model makes Super Nova the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Grobiņa.
- Where and when is Super Nova vs Grobiņa played?
- Super Nova vs Grobiņa is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Slokas Stadiona, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.