Oliveirense vs União Santarém: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 11Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Carlos Osório, Oliveira de Azeméis
The Footlab model makes Oliveirense the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for União Santarém. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oliveirense vs União Santarém?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Oliveirense (1,809) and União Santarém (1,854).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oliveirense have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; União Santarém have 1, 6 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 3-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-5 | Segunda Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Feirense(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Oliveirense(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Oliveirense win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 União Santarém win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | União Santarém 1-1 Oliveirense | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: União Santarém vs Oliveirense on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Oliveirense score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; União Santarém score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveirense | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| União Santarém | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oliveirense sit 3rd in Liga 3 (5 points from 3 matches) and União Santarém sit 10th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Oliveirense | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | União Santarém | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oliveirense vs União Santarém?
- The Footlab model makes Oliveirense the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for União Santarém.
- Where and when is Oliveirense vs União Santarém played?
- Oliveirense vs União Santarém is played on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Carlos Osório, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.