Olympic Varna vs Chernolomets 1919: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 4Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Chernolomets 1919 the favourite at 67%, against 16% for a draw and 16% for Olympic Varna. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Olympic Varna vs Chernolomets 1919?
Chernolomets 1919 starts as the favourite with a 224-point Elo edge (1,629 vs 1,405).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olympic Varna have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Chernolomets 1919 have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(away) | 4-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 0-8 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 9, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(home) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Volov Shumen(away) | 0-5 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Olympic Varna win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Chernolomets 1919 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Olympic Varna 0-2 Chernolomets 1919 | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Chernolomets 1919 3-1 Olympic Varna | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Olympic Varna vs Chernolomets 1919 on Mar 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Olympic Varna score 1.7 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Chernolomets 1919 score 2.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympic Varna | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Chernolomets 1919 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Olympic Varna sit 4th in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Chernolomets 1919 sit 9th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Olympic Varna | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Chernolomets 1919 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Olympic Varna vs Chernolomets 1919?
- The Footlab model makes Chernolomets 1919 the favourite at 67%, against 16% for a draw and 16% for Olympic Varna.
- Where and when is Olympic Varna vs Chernolomets 1919 played?
- Olympic Varna vs Chernolomets 1919 is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.