Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 4Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion kv. Riltsi, Dobrich
The Footlab model makes Ustrem Donchevo the favourite at 52%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Riltzi. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo?
Ustrem Donchevo starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,441 vs 1,293).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Riltzi have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Ustrem Donchevo have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Devnya 2005(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(home) | 2-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Volov Shumen(away) | 0-9 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Riltzi win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Ustrem Donchevo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi 2-4 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo 3-1 Riltzi | Third League - Northeast |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Riltzi 3-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 2-0 Riltzi | Third League - Northeast |
| May 11, 2024 | Riltzi 4-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-0 Riltzi | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Riltzi score 1.0 and concede 3.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riltzi | 1.0 | 3.1 | 2 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Riltzi sit 13th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 | Riltzi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo?
- The Footlab model makes Ustrem Donchevo the favourite at 52%, against 21% for a draw and 27% for Riltzi.
- Where and when is Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo played?
- Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion kv. Riltsi, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.