Botev Novi Pazar vs Ludogorets III: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 4Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Botev, Novi pazar
The Footlab model makes Ludogorets III the favourite at 84%, against 11% for a draw and 5% for Botev Novi Pazar. The most likely score is 0-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Novi Pazar vs Ludogorets III?
Ludogorets III is a heavy favourite: 1,757 Elo points against 1,286, a 471-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Novi Pazar have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Ludogorets III have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 6-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 2-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Riltzi(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cherno more II(home) | 2-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Botev Novi Pazar win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Ludogorets III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar 1-3 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Ludogorets III 6-0 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Ludogorets III 3-1 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Botev Novi Pazar 0-0 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 26, 2023 | Ludogorets III 7-0 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Botev Novi Pazar 0-4 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Botev Novi Pazar vs Ludogorets III on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Novi Pazar score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ludogorets III score 3.2 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Novi Pazar | 1.7 | 2.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Ludogorets III | 3.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Novi Pazar sit 2nd in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Ludogorets III sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Botev Novi Pazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Ludogorets III | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Novi Pazar vs Ludogorets III?
- The Footlab model makes Ludogorets III the favourite at 84%, against 11% for a draw and 5% for Botev Novi Pazar.
- Where and when is Botev Novi Pazar vs Ludogorets III played?
- Botev Novi Pazar vs Ludogorets III is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Botev, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.