Match

Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising: prediction and stats

USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Championship Soccer Stadium, Irvine, California

Orange County SCPhoenix Rising

The Footlab AI model makes Orange County SC the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Phoenix Rising. The most likely score is 1-1. If Orange County SC wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising?

A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Orange County SC (1,771) and Phoenix Rising (1,808).

43%27%30%
Orange County SC winDrawPhoenix Rising win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Orange County SC

4-3-3
  1. 11L. MacKinnon
  2. 21M. War
  3. 20M. Bunbury
  1. 8O. Sylla
  2. 10C. Hegardt
  3. 19K. Partida
  1. 23R. Doghman
  2. 15T. Espy
  3. 5T. Brewitt
  4. 16J. Lindsey
  1. 1A. Rando

Phoenix Rising

5-4-1
  1. 7I. Sacko
  1. 17J. Scearce
  2. 28K. Arase
  3. 70J. Torres
  4. 19D. Rivera
  1. 87Daniel Flores
  2. 13J. Moursou
  3. 8D. Gómez
  4. 4P. Mar Boye
  5. 51A. Essengue
  1. 1P. Rakovsky

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:42 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orange County SC have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Phoenix Rising have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Orange County SC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026El Paso Locomotive(away)1-2USL Championship
Oct 4, 2026Monterey Bay(home)1-2USL Championship
Sep 27, 2026Pittsburgh Riverhounds(home)1-0USL Championship
Sep 19, 2026Lexington(away)0-6USL Championship
Sep 13, 2026Las Vegas Lights(home)0-2USL Championship
Phoenix Rising
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Las Vegas Lights(home)3-2USL Championship
Oct 4, 2026New Mexico United(away)1-2USL Championship
Sep 27, 2026Oakland Roots(away)0-3USL Championship
Sep 20, 2026El Paso Locomotive(home)1-3USL Championship
Sep 13, 2026FC Tulsa(home)2-1USL Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Orange County SC wins, 1 draw, 3 Phoenix Rising wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 17, 2026Phoenix Rising 2-1 Orange County SCUSL League One Cup
Apr 2, 2026Orange County SC 1-2 Phoenix RisingUS Open Cup
Mar 15, 2026Phoenix Rising 1-1 Orange County SCUSL Championship
Jul 31, 2025Orange County SC 4-1 Phoenix RisingUSL Championship
Jun 8, 2025Phoenix Rising 3-1 Orange County SCUSL Championship
Sep 26, 2024Orange County SC 2-0 Phoenix RisingUSL Championship

Last archived meeting: Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC on May 17, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Orange County SC score 1.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Phoenix Rising score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Orange County SC1.02.129/159/15
Phoenix Rising1.41.7112/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Orange County SC sit 7th in USL Championship (39 points from 28 matches) and Phoenix Rising sit 9th (36 points from 28 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Orange County SC281099374439
9Phoenix Rising289910394236

A question about Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising?
The Footlab AI model makes Orange County SC the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Phoenix Rising.
Where and when is Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising played?
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Championship Soccer Stadium, in the USL Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising

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