Zenit Penza vs Arsenal Tula II: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 24Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Pervomayskiy, Penza
The Footlab model makes Zenit Penza the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Arsenal Tula II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zenit Penza vs Arsenal Tula II?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Zenit Penza (1,515) and Arsenal Tula II (1,484).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zenit Penza have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Arsenal Tula II have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FK Spartak Tambov(home) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(away) | 0-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(home) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | SKA Rostov(away) | 2-2 | Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rotor-2(away) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Shumbrat(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FK Spartak Tambov(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(away) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ryazan(home) | 0-5 | Second League - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Zenit Penza win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Arsenal Tula II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Arsenal Tula II 1-1 Zenit Penza | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Zenit Penza 1-1 Arsenal Tula II | Second League - Group 3 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Arsenal Tula II 0-1 Zenit Penza | Second League - Group 3 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Arsenal Tula II 0-2 Zenit Penza | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 1, 2024 | Zenit Penza 2-2 Arsenal Tula II | Second League - Group 3 |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Zenit Penza 1-0 Arsenal Tula II | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal Tula II vs Zenit Penza on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zenit Penza score 1.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal Tula II score 1.1 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit Penza | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Arsenal Tula II | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zenit Penza sit 13th in Second League - Group 3 (17 points from 19 matches) and Arsenal Tula II sit 14th (13 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Zenit Penza | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 38 | 17 |
| 14 | Arsenal Tula II | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 42 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zenit Penza vs Arsenal Tula II?
- The Footlab model makes Zenit Penza the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Arsenal Tula II.
- Where and when is Zenit Penza vs Arsenal Tula II played?
- Zenit Penza vs Arsenal Tula II is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Pervomayskiy, in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.