Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 24Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Metallurg, Lipetsk
The Footlab model makes Metallurg Lipetsk the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for Strogino. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino?
Metallurg Lipetsk starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (1,693 vs 1,477).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metallurg Lipetsk have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Strogino have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(away) | 2-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Murom(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ryazan(home) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rotor-2(away) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SKA Khabarovsk II(home) | 1-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shumbrat(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Torpedo Vladimir(home) | 0-3 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FK Spartak Tambov(away) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(away) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Metallurg Lipetsk win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Strogino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Strogino 2-2 Metallurg Lipetsk | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Metallurg Lipetsk 3-0 Strogino | Second League - Group 3 |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Strogino 0-3 Metallurg Lipetsk | Second League - Group 3 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Strogino 1-0 Metallurg Lipetsk | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 6, 2022 | Metallurg Lipetsk 0-0 Strogino | Second League - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2021 | Metallurg Lipetsk 3-1 Strogino | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Strogino vs Metallurg Lipetsk on May 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Metallurg Lipetsk score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Strogino score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metallurg Lipetsk | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Strogino | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metallurg Lipetsk sit 4th in Second League - Group 3 (38 points from 20 matches) and Strogino sit 12th (22 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 40 | 23 | 38 |
| 12 | Strogino | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 33 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino?
- The Footlab model makes Metallurg Lipetsk the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for Strogino.
- Where and when is Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino played?
- Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Metallurg, in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.