Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Osasuna. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Madrid wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,546 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 248-point Elo edge (2,276 vs 2,029).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Osasuna
4-4-2- 17A. Budimir
- 9Raúl García
- 7Moncayola
- 14Rubén García
- 6Lucas Torró
- 16Moi Gómez
- 27Íñigo Arguibide
- 24Catena
- 35U. Santos
- 23Abel Bretones
- 13Aitor Fernández
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 7Lee Kang-In
- 15Jonathan David
- 20Giuliano Simeone Baldini
- 5Johnny Cardoso
- 8Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 10Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 22Alejandro Grimaldo
- 21Cristian Romero
- 17Dávid Hancko
- 13Jan Oblak
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 01:51 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Osasuna have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Osasuna wins, 0 draws, 4 Atletico Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| May 12, 2026 | Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| May 15, 2025 | Osasuna 2-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 1-4 Osasuna | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna on Sep 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Osasuna score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Osasuna sit 16th in La Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
A question about Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Osasuna.
- Where and when is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Sadar, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.