Valencia vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab AI model makes Valencia the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Valencia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Alaves?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Valencia (2,063) and Alaves (2,074).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Valencia vs Alaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Valencia
5-4-1- 9Hugo Duro
- 8Javi Guerra
- 23F. Ugrinic
- 2G. Rodríguez
- 19Dani Raba
- 18Pepelu
- 14José Gayà
- 24Pablo Maffeo
- 12J. de Haas
- 4M. Diakhaby
- 1S. Dimitrievski
Alaves
3-5-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 21A. Rebbach
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 7Angel Pérez
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 17Jonny
- 2N. Valentini
- 1Sivera
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Alaves have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 0-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Valencia wins, 2 draws, 2 Alaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Alaves 0-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Valencia 3-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Alaves 0-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| May 14, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Valencia 2-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| Jul 24, 2024 | Valencia 0-1 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valencia sit 19th in La Liga (5 points from 8 matches) and Alaves sit 7th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
A question about Valencia vs Alaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Alaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Valencia the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Alaves played?
- Valencia vs Alaves is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.