Villarreal vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaMatchday 24Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,515 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarreal vs Barcelona?
Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 277-point Elo edge (2,409 vs 2,131).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Villarreal vs Barcelona
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Villarreal
4-4-2- 9G. Mikautadze
- 21T. Oluwaseyi
- 16C. Macia
- 17T. Buchanan
- 10Alberto Moleiro
- 18P. Gueye
- 15S. Mouriño
- 12Renato Veiga
- 20Carlos Romero
- 2Logan Costa
- 25P. Gulácsi
Barcelona
4-1-4-1- 11Raphinha
- 10Lamine Yamal
- 8Pedri
- 7Fermín
- 17A. Gordon
- 16Rodri
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 2João Cancelo
- 18Gerard Martín
- 4B. Farinas
- 1Joan García
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 04:22 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarreal have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Barcelona have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 0-6 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Manacor(away) | 5-0 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 6-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-4 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Villarreal wins, 0 draws, 4 Barcelona wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Barcelona 4-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Villarreal 0-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| May 18, 2025 | Barcelona 2-3 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Villarreal 1-5 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Barcelona 3-5 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Villarreal 3-4 Barcelona | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Barcelona vs Villarreal on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villarreal score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 3.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Barcelona | 3.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarreal sit 8th in La Liga (15 points from 12 matches) and Barcelona sit 1st (33 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 13 | 33 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
A question about Villarreal vs Barcelona?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Villarreal.
- Where and when is Villarreal vs Barcelona played?
- Villarreal vs Barcelona is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Cerámica, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.