Malaga vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1. If Malaga wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,862 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Athletic Club?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Malaga (2,026) and Athletic Club (2,105).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malaga vs Athletic Club
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malaga
4-4-2- 9Chupe
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 10David Larrubia
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 8Carlos Dotor
- 23Izan Merino
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 12José Salinas
- 20Fernando Calero
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Athletic Club
4-2-3-1- 9I. Williams
- 16Ruíz de Galarreta
- 23Robert Navarro
- 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
- 7Álex Berenguer
- 28Peio Canales
- 14Aymeric Laporte
- 4Aitor Paredes
- 31J. Louis-Jean
- 15Hugo Rincón
- 1Unai Simón
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 09:13 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Athletic Club have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Elche(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 2-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Malaga win, 2 draws, 3 Athletic Club wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2018 | Athletic Club 2-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| Sep 23, 2017 | Malaga 3-3 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Mar 5, 2017 | Athletic Club 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Oct 2, 2016 | Malaga 2-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Apr 17, 2016 | Malaga 0-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 6, 2015 | Athletic Club 0-0 Malaga | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Malaga on Feb 25, 2018
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Athletic Club | 2.0 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 20th in La Liga (4 points from 9 matches) and Athletic Club sit 11th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Athletic Club | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 4 |
A question about Malaga vs Athletic Club?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Athletic Club?
- The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Athletic Club played?
- Malaga vs Athletic Club is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.