Österlen vs Lilla Torg: prediction and stats
Division 2 - Södra GötalandSödra Götaland - 23Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Skillinge Idrottsplats, Simrishamn
The Footlab model makes Österlen the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Lilla Torg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Österlen vs Lilla Torg?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Österlen (1,428) and Lilla Torg (1,405).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Österlen have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Lilla Torg have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Räppe(away) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Oskarshamns AIK(home) | 0-3 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sölvesborg(home) | 4-1 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Linero(away) | 2-0 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Karlskrona(home) | 0-3 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | IFK Trelleborg(away) | 0-2 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Karlskrona(home) | 1-4 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Staffanstorp United(away) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Oskarshamns AIK(home) | 2-3 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kristianstad(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Österlen win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Lilla Torg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | Lilla Torg 0-0 Österlen | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
Last archived meeting: Lilla Torg vs Österlen on Apr 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Österlen score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lilla Torg score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österlen | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Lilla Torg | 1.3 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Österlen sit 8th in Division 2 - Södra Götaland (18 points from 13 matches) and Lilla Torg sit 9th (15 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Österlen | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| 8 | Österlen | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 26 | 25 |
| 9 | Lilla Torg | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 20 | 15 |
| 11 | Lilla Torg | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 30 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Österlen vs Lilla Torg?
- The Footlab model makes Österlen the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Lilla Torg.
- Where and when is Österlen vs Lilla Torg played?
- Österlen vs Lilla Torg is played on September 27, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Skillinge Idrottsplats, in the Division 2 - Södra Götaland.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.