Ostia Mare vs Vado: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 11Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Anco Marzio, Lido di Ostia
The Footlab model makes Vado the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Ostia Mare. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ostia Mare vs Vado?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Ostia Mare (1,815) and Vado (1,900).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ostia Mare have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Vado have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Perugia(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Latina(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 13, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Atalanta II(home) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Inter U23(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 0-6 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 30, 2026 | Barletta(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 24, 2026 | Barletta(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Championship Round |
How many goals should we expect?
Ostia Mare score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Vado score 2.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ostia Mare | 1.2 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Vado | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ostia Mare sit 16th in Serie C - Girone B (0 points from 1 matches) and Vado sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Vado | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Ostia Mare | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ostia Mare vs Vado?
- The Footlab model makes Vado the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Ostia Mare.
- Where and when is Ostia Mare vs Vado played?
- Ostia Mare vs Vado is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Anco Marzio, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.