Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo
The Footlab model makes Oviedo the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Sporting Gijon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Oviedo (1,942) and Sporting Gijon (1,958).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oviedo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Sporting Gijon have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Granada CF(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Nürnberg(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ponferradina(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Burgos(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Oviedo win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Sporting Gijon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | Oviedo 1-1 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Sporting Gijon 3-1 Oviedo | Segunda División |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Sporting Gijon 1-0 Oviedo | Segunda División |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Oviedo 0-0 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| May 13, 2023 | Sporting Gijon 1-1 Oviedo | Segunda División |
| Dec 17, 2022 | Oviedo 1-0 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon on Jan 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Oviedo score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Gijon score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Sporting Gijon | 1.7 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oviedo sit 18th in Segunda División (1 points from 2 matches) and Sporting Gijon sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sporting Gijon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Oviedo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon?
- The Footlab model makes Oviedo the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Sporting Gijon.
- Where and when is Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon played?
- Oviedo vs Sporting Gijon is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.