Match

Pafos vs Riga: prediction and stats

UEFA Europa Conference LeagueLeague Stage - 2Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, Paphos

PafosRiga

The Footlab AI model makes Pafos the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Riga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pafos wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Pafos vs Riga?

On Elo ratings, Pafos has 2,041 points and Riga 2,034.

55%24%21%
Pafos winDrawRiga win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Pafos vs Riga

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Pafos

4-5-1
  1. 18Lelê
  1. 88Pêpê Rodrigues
  2. 13N. Moumi Ngamaleu
  3. 26I. Šunjić
  4. 12K. Sema
  5. 30V. Dragomir
  1. 4David Luiz
  2. 14N. Ioannou
  3. 5David Goldar
  4. 7Bruno Felipe
  1. 99R. Majecki

Riga

4-2-3-1
  1. 25A. Taiwo
  1. 40A. Ankrah
  2. 18S. Oulad M'Hand
  3. 22M. Diop
  4. 7R. Aouani
  5. 11Caio
  1. 5K. Wassom
  2. 21B. Musah
  3. 23M. Toņiševs
  4. 17A. Salazar
  1. 91F. Orols

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:39 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pafos have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Riga have 9, 5 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Pafos
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 18, 2026AEL(home)0-21. Division
Sep 13, 2026AEK Larnaca(away)1-01. Division
Sep 7, 2026Olympiakos(home)0-01. Division
Sep 3, 2026Omonia Nicosia(away)1-0Super Cup
Aug 30, 2026Karmiotissa(away)3-01. Division
Riga
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Aris(away)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026FS Jelgava(away)1-0Virsliga
Sep 15, 2026Super Nova(away)1-0Virsliga
Sep 11, 2026Auda(home)2-2Virsliga
Sep 7, 2026BFC Daugavpils(home)1-1Virsliga

How many goals should we expect?

Pafos score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Riga score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Pafos1.31.074/154/15
Riga2.11.1510/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Pafos vs Riga?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Pafos vs Riga?
The Footlab AI model makes Pafos the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Riga.
Where and when is Pafos vs Riga played?
Pafos vs Riga is played on October 22, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC) at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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