Paide vs Laagri: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Paide linnastaadion, Paide
The Footlab model makes Paide the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Laagri. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paide vs Laagri?
Paide starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,706 vs 1,551).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paide have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Laagri have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 4-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kuressaare(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tamper(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Kuressaare(away) | 2-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Paide win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Laagri win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Laagri 5-2 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Paide 1-0 Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Laagri 2-2 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Laagri 3-0 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Paide 2-0 Laagri | Meistriliiga |
| May 17, 2025 | Paide 2-2 Laagri | Meistriliiga |
How many goals should we expect?
Paide score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Laagri score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Laagri | 2.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paide sit 4th in Meistriliiga (39 points from 23 matches) and Laagri sit 6th (28 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Paide | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 39 |
| 6 | Laagri | 24 | 9 | 1 | 14 | 34 | 40 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paide vs Laagri?
- The Footlab model makes Paide the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Laagri.
- Where and when is Paide vs Laagri played?
- Paide vs Laagri is played on September 13, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Paide linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.