FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes FC Levadia Tallinn the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Vaprus. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus?
FC Levadia Tallinn starts as the favourite with a 285-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,574).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Levadia Tallinn have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Vaprus have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 4-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 5-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vaprus(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | IFK Goteborg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 1-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Phoenix(away) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tabasalu Ulasabat(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Levadia Tallinn win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Vaprus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vaprus 1-1 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| May 24, 2026 | Vaprus 1-6 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 8, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn 2-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Jan 24, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn 3-2 Vaprus | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Vaprus 1-3 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 22, 2025 | FC Levadia Tallinn 1-3 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Levadia Tallinn score 2.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Vaprus score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 2.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Vaprus | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Levadia Tallinn sit 1st in Meistriliiga (56 points from 23 matches) and Vaprus sit 7th (27 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 61 | 18 | 56 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 44 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus?
- The Footlab model makes FC Levadia Tallinn the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Vaprus.
- Where and when is FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus played?
- FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at A. Le Coq Arena, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.