Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 34Kick-off on May 29, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Parc des Princes, Paris
The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,987 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Paris Saint Germain is a heavy favourite: 2,366 Elo points against 2,021, a 345-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3- 7K. Kvaratskhelia
- 11M. Akliouche
- 9Ferran Torres
- 87João Neves
- 4Beraldo
- 27Pedro Fernández
- 21L. Hernández
- 33W. Zaïre-Emery
- 2A. Hakimi
- 6I. Zabarnyi
- 39M. Safonov
Toulouse
4-2-3-1- 13J. Russell-Rowe
- 23C. Cásseres
- 8T. Jørgensen
- 20C. Tengstedt
- 14N. Sigur
- 37Y. Azizi
- 12C. Tapé
- 3M. McKenzie
- 22R. Messali
- 2R. Nicolaisen
- 16G. Restes
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 10:09 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris Saint Germain have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Toulouse have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 4-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 3-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Paris Saint Germain wins, 0 draws, 1 Toulouse win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Toulouse 3-6 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Toulouse 0-1 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| May 12, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 3, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Toulouse | Trophée des Champions |
Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paris Saint Germain score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Toulouse score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Toulouse | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paris Saint Germain sit 2nd in Ligue 1 (14 points from 7 matches) and Toulouse sit 11th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 14 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
A question about Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse played?
- Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse is played on May 29, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Parc des Princes, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.