Patriotas vs Union Magdalena: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de La Independencia, Tunja
The Footlab model makes Patriotas the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Union Magdalena. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Patriotas vs Union Magdalena?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Patriotas (1,561) and Union Magdalena (1,622).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Patriotas have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Union Magdalena have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Depor FC(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Santander(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(home) | 3-1 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Llaneros(away) | 1-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-2 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Patriotas win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Union Magdalena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | Union Magdalena 2-1 Patriotas | Primera B |
| Oct 4, 2022 | Patriotas 3-1 Union Magdalena | Primera A |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Union Magdalena 0-1 Patriotas | Primera A |
| Oct 3, 2019 | Patriotas 1-1 Union Magdalena | Primera A |
| Apr 6, 2019 | Union Magdalena 4-0 Patriotas | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Union Magdalena vs Patriotas on Mar 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Patriotas score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Union Magdalena score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriotas | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Union Magdalena | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Patriotas sit 11th in Primera B (17 points from 15 matches) and Union Magdalena sit 3rd (32 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Patriotas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 4 | Patriotas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 21 | 42 |
| 10 | Patriotas | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 25 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Patriotas vs Union Magdalena?
- The Footlab model makes Patriotas the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Union Magdalena.
- Where and when is Patriotas vs Union Magdalena played?
- Patriotas vs Union Magdalena is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de La Independencia, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.