Real Cartagena vs Envigado: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León, Cartagena de Indias
The Footlab model makes Real Cartagena the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Envigado. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Cartagena vs Envigado?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Real Cartagena (1,607) and Envigado (1,640).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Cartagena have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Envigado have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 6-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Soacha(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | America de Cali(home) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Quindio(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Once Caldas(home) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Real Cartagena win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Envigado win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Envigado 1-1 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| May 26, 2026 | Real Cartagena 2-3 Envigado | Primera B |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Envigado 1-1 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Real Cartagena 2-1 Envigado | Copa Colombia |
| May 8, 2024 | Envigado 2-0 Real Cartagena | Copa Colombia |
Last archived meeting: Envigado vs Real Cartagena on May 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Cartagena score 1.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Envigado score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Cartagena | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Envigado | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Cartagena sit 5th in Primera B (27 points from 17 matches) and Envigado sit 2nd (33 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Envigado | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 1 | Envigado | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 24 | 48 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Envigado | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 33 |
| 2 | Real Cartagena | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Real Cartagena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Real Cartagena | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 29 | 47 |
| 4 | Envigado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 26 |
| 6 | Envigado | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Envigado | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Cartagena vs Envigado?
- The Footlab model makes Real Cartagena the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Envigado.
- Where and when is Real Cartagena vs Envigado played?
- Real Cartagena vs Envigado is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.