Real Santander vs Orsomarso: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Fútbol Erwin O'Neil, San Andrés y Providencia
The Footlab model makes Orsomarso the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Real Santander. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Santander vs Orsomarso?
Orsomarso starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (1,496 vs 1,339).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Santander have 1 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Orsomarso have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Depor FC(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Patriotas(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 1-5 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Union Magdalena(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
| May 16, 2026 | Independiente Medellin(home) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Real Santander win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Orsomarso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Orsomarso 2-0 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Orsomarso 1-0 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Real Santander 0-0 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Real Santander 0-2 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Mar 11, 2024 | Orsomarso 4-2 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Sep 14, 2023 | Orsomarso 2-2 Real Santander | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Orsomarso vs Real Santander on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Santander score 0.8 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Orsomarso score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Santander | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Orsomarso | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Santander sit 16th in Primera B (7 points from 15 matches) and Orsomarso sit 10th (17 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Orsomarso | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Orsomarso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Orsomarso | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 22 |
| 12 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Santander | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Santander vs Orsomarso?
- The Footlab model makes Orsomarso the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Real Santander.
- Where and when is Real Santander vs Orsomarso played?
- Real Santander vs Orsomarso is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Fútbol Erwin O'Neil, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.