PAU vs Dunkerque: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 7Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Stade Nouste Camp, Bizanos
The Footlab model makes Dunkerque the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for PAU. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PAU vs Dunkerque?
Dunkerque starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,864 vs 1,753).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PAU have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Dunkerque have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Nancy(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Annecy(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Unión(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Montpellier(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Reims(away) | 3-3 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Grenoble(home) | 4-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KV Mechelen(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 PAU win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Dunkerque win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Dunkerque 3-1 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | PAU 0-3 Dunkerque | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | PAU 1-1 Dunkerque | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Dunkerque 3-2 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Dunkerque 1-0 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 2, 2023 | PAU 1-1 Dunkerque | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
PAU score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Dunkerque score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAU | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Dunkerque | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PAU sit 12th in Ligue 2 (3 points from 3 matches) and Dunkerque sit 5th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dunkerque | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | PAU | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PAU vs Dunkerque?
- The Footlab model makes Dunkerque the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for PAU.
- Where and when is PAU vs Dunkerque played?
- PAU vs Dunkerque is played on September 18, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Nouste Camp, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.