PAU vs Guingamp: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 31Kick-off on April 30, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Stade Nouste Camp, Bizanos
The Footlab model makes Guingamp the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for PAU. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PAU vs Guingamp?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate PAU (1,751) and Guingamp (1,784).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PAU have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Guingamp have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Nancy(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Annecy(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Unión(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sochaux(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Boulogne(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Metz(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lorient(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 PAU win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Guingamp win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | PAU 2-1 Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Guingamp 2-2 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| May 10, 2025 | PAU 1-3 Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Guingamp 0-1 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | PAU 1-2 Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Guingamp 4-0 PAU | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
PAU score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Guingamp score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAU | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Guingamp | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PAU sit 13th in Ligue 2 (3 points from 3 matches) and Guingamp sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Guingamp | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | PAU | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PAU vs Guingamp?
- The Footlab model makes Guingamp the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for PAU.
- Where and when is PAU vs Guingamp played?
- PAU vs Guingamp is played on April 30, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Nouste Camp, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.