Penafiel vs Farense: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
The Footlab model makes Farense the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penafiel vs Farense?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Penafiel (1,872) and Farense (1,944).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penafiel have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Farense have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Porto B(away) | 3-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Penafiel win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Farense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Penafiel 1-1 Farense | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Farense 0-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Farense 2-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 5, 2022 | Penafiel 0-2 Farense | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Penafiel 1-3 Farense | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 1, 2021 | Farense 2-2 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Penafiel score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Farense score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Farense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penafiel sit 7th in Segunda Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and Farense sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Farense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Penafiel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penafiel vs Farense?
- The Footlab model makes Farense the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Penafiel vs Farense played?
- Penafiel vs Farense is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.