Penafiel vs Farense: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaMatchday 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
The Footlab AI model makes Farense the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1. If Farense wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 6,408 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penafiel vs Farense?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Penafiel (2,000) and Farense (1,987).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Penafiel vs Farense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Penafiel
3-4-3- 17João Pinto
- 9Max Svensson
- 11J. Fuentes
- 21Pedro Sá
- 8Àlex Carbonell
- 50Francisco Varela
- 38M. Ramon
- 2Iano Imbene
- 6Adrián Pica
- 7Douglas Borel
- 1Miguel Oliveira
Farense
4-3-3- 7João Resende
- 17André Candeias
- 11Nélson Oliveira
- 10S. Singh
- 29Cláudio Falcão
- 27Mattheus Oliveira
- 37Gonçalo Silva
- 44N. Zolotić
- 78Alex Pinto
- 6Derick Poloni
- 97F. Buntić
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 12:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penafiel have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Farense have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 3-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Farense(away) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | AVS(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 2-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Penafiel(home) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Penafiel win, 2 draws, 3 Farense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Farense 1-4 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Penafiel 1-1 Farense | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Farense 0-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Farense 2-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 5, 2022 | Penafiel 0-2 Farense | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Penafiel 1-3 Farense | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Penafiel score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Farense score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Farense | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penafiel sit 1st in Segunda Liga (22 points from 10 matches) and Farense sit 8th (15 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penafiel | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 22 |
| 8 | Farense | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
A question about Penafiel vs Farense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penafiel vs Farense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Farense the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Penafiel vs Farense played?
- Penafiel vs Farense is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.