Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaMatchday 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
The Footlab AI model makes Penafiel the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Lusitânia Lourosa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Penafiel wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,206 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Penafiel (2,000) and Lusitânia Lourosa (2,005).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Penafiel
3-4-3- 17João Pinto
- 9Max Svensson
- 11J. Fuentes
- 21Pedro Sá
- 8Àlex Carbonell
- 50Francisco Varela
- 38M. Ramon
- 2Iano Imbene
- 6Adrián Pica
- 7Douglas Borel
- 1Miguel Oliveira
Lusitânia Lourosa
4-3-3- 12Arsénio
- 17João Santos
- 21Paulité
- 27Fabinho
- 20Diogo Paulo
- 88Miguel Teixeira
- 24Ricardinho
- 22Bruno Faria
- 52F. Machado
- 4D. Collard
- 29Brian Araújo
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 10:28 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penafiel have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Lusitânia Lourosa have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 3-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Farense(away) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | AVS(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Feirense(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Farense(home) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Os Limianos(home) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Penafiel win, 1 draw, 0 Lusitânia Lourosa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Penafiel 2-0 Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Lusitânia Lourosa 0-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa on Feb 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penafiel score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lusitânia Lourosa score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penafiel sit 1st in Segunda Liga (22 points from 10 matches) and Lusitânia Lourosa sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penafiel | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 19 |
A question about Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Penafiel the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Lusitânia Lourosa.
- Where and when is Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa played?
- Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa is played on November 15, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.