Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
The Footlab model makes Penafiel the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Lusitânia Lourosa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Penafiel (1,872) and Lusitânia Lourosa (1,923).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penafiel have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Lusitânia Lourosa have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Amarante(away) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Penafiel win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Lusitânia Lourosa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Penafiel 2-0 Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Lusitânia Lourosa 0-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa on Feb 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penafiel score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Lusitânia Lourosa score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 1.1 | 1.4 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penafiel sit 7th in Segunda Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and Lusitânia Lourosa sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Penafiel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
- The Footlab model makes Penafiel the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Lusitânia Lourosa.
- Where and when is Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa played?
- Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.