Portimonense vs Academica: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimão
The Footlab model makes Academica the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Portimonense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portimonense vs Academica?
Academica starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (2,027 vs 1,868).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portimonense have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Academica have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vizela(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Penafiel(away) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Portimonense win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Academica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2021 | Portimonense 2-1 Academica | Taça da Liga |
| Oct 19, 2019 | Academica 2-1 Portimonense | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 3, 2019 | Portimonense 2-0 Academica | Taça da Liga |
| Feb 4, 2017 | Portimonense 0-0 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 24, 2016 | Academica 0-0 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 2, 2011 | Academica 1-0 Portimonense | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Portimonense vs Academica on Jul 23, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Portimonense score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Academica score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Academica | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Portimonense sit 4th in Segunda Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Academica sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Portimonense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portimonense vs Academica?
- The Footlab model makes Academica the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Portimonense.
- Where and when is Portimonense vs Academica played?
- Portimonense vs Academica is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.