Leixoes vs Chaves: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Mar, Matosinhos
The Footlab AI model makes Leixoes the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leixoes wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leixoes vs Chaves?
On Elo ratings, Leixoes has 2,060 points and Chaves 1,974.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leixoes vs Chaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leixoes
4-4-2- 7Salvador Agra
- 35B. Rochez
- 22Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo
- 10Rafael Barbosa
- 80João Assunção
- 8Miguel Sousa
- 30Serif Nhaga
- 4Matheus Costa
- 77Paulinho
- 44S. Commey
- 51I. Stefanović
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 30Costinha
- 17Roberto
- 16D. Yearwood
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 23Léo Alabá
- 29M. Tounkara
- 34Ricardo Alves
- 33Tiago Simões
- 1João Valido
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 09:48 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leixoes have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Chaves have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 4-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 3-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 2-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | AVS(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leixoes win, 4 draws, 1 Chaves win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Chaves 1-2 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Leixoes 0-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Leixoes 0-0 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Chaves 0-0 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 24, 2022 | Leixoes 1-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2021 | Chaves 1-1 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Leixoes score 2.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Chaves score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes | 2.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Chaves | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leixoes sit 8th in Segunda Liga (10 points from 6 matches) and Chaves sit 16th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leixoes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 16 | Chaves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Leixoes vs Chaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leixoes vs Chaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leixoes the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Leixoes vs Chaves played?
- Leixoes vs Chaves is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Mar, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.