Leixoes vs Chaves: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Mar, Matosinhos
The Footlab model makes Leixoes the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leixoes vs Chaves?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Leixoes (1,916) and Chaves (1,887).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leixoes have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Chaves have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 2-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vizela(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AVS(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sporting CP B(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Academica(home) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leixoes win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Chaves win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Chaves 1-2 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Leixoes 0-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Leixoes 0-0 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Chaves 0-0 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 24, 2022 | Leixoes 1-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2021 | Chaves 1-1 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Leixoes score 2.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Chaves score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes | 2.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Chaves | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leixoes sit 9th in Segunda Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Chaves sit 17th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Leixoes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Chaves | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leixoes vs Chaves?
- The Footlab model makes Leixoes the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Leixoes vs Chaves played?
- Leixoes vs Chaves is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Mar, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.