Penarol vs Progreso: result 1-1 and analysis
Primera DivisiónClausura - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Full time
What was the result of Penarol vs Progreso?
Penarol and Progreso drew 1-1 on October 10, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 26′N. LópezProgreso
- 90′A. HernándezPenarol
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Penarol win at 70%: prediction missed. Most likely score announced: 2-0. Actual score: 1-1.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Penarol vs Progreso
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Penarol
3-4-2-1- 19M. Arezo
- 32L. Umpiérrez
- 11C. Jaime
- 26Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat
- 8N. Fernández
- 5E. Remedi
- 7J. Cabrera
- 34N. Herrera
- 2G. Pezzella
- 6L. Ferreira
- 29W. Aguerre
Progreso
4-2-3-1- 8M. Juambeltz
- 7A. Ocampo
- 10N. López
- 17F. de León
- 25R. Cristóbal
- 5A. Pinheiro
- 40A. Cougo
- 6M. Saravia
- 15M. Martin
- 24E. Álvarez
- 1R. Bacchia
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penarol have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Progreso have 5, 0 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Atletico Torque(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Boston River(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Danubio(away) | 1-1 | Copa Uruguay |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Cerro(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Boston River(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Club Nacional(home) | 0-1 | Copa Uruguay |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cerro(home) | 1-3 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Penarol wins, 0 draws, 0 Progreso wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Progreso 0-2 Penarol | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Penarol 2-1 Progreso | Primera División - Clausura |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Progreso 1-3 Penarol | Primera División |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Progreso 1-5 Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Progreso 0-2 Penarol | Primera División |
| May 23, 2024 | Penarol 3-1 Progreso | Primera División |
How many goals should we expect?
Penarol score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Progreso score 0.9 and concede 1.4.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Progreso | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penarol sit 3rd in Primera División (20 points from 10 matches) and Progreso sit 9th (13 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penarol | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 20 |
| 9 | Progreso | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 13 |
A question about Penarol vs Progreso?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy