Penarol vs Wanderers: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo
The Footlab AI model makes Penarol the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Wanderers. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 3,330 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penarol vs Wanderers?
Penarol starts as the favourite with a 241-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,709).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Penarol vs Wanderers
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Penarol
3-4-2-1- 11C. Jaime
- 8N. Fernández
- 21J. Trindade
- 13E. Darias
- 93D. Laxalt
- 80F. González
- 16T. Olase
- 5E. Remedi
- 2G. Pezzella
- 34N. Herrera
- 29W. Aguerre
Wanderers
4-3-3- 24J. Zeballos
- 30F. Labandeira
- 10L. Cosentino
- 5N. Queiroz
- 16J. Alberti
- 21S. Benitez
- 2N. Cabral
- 31N. Furtado
- 13F. Formiliano
- 15D. Mencia
- 33A. Buffa
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 03:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penarol have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Wanderers have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Juventud(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Progreso(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Atletico Torque(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Boston River(home) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Cerrito(away) | 2-2 | Copa Uruguay |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cerro(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Albion FC(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Penarol wins, 0 draws, 1 Wanderers win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Penarol 5-1 Wanderers | Primera División |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Wanderers 1-0 Penarol | Primera División |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Penarol 3-0 Wanderers | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Penarol 2-0 Wanderers | Primera División |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Wanderers 1-2 Penarol | Primera División |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Wanderers 0-2 Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
How many goals should we expect?
Penarol score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Wanderers score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 1.3 | 0.7 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Wanderers | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penarol sit 4th in Primera División (21 points from 12 matches) and Wanderers sit 11th (15 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penarol | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 21 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 15 |
A question about Penarol vs Wanderers?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penarol vs Wanderers?
- The Footlab AI model makes Penarol the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Wanderers.
- Where and when is Penarol vs Wanderers played?
- Penarol vs Wanderers is played on October 31, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.