Pennarossa vs Fiorentino: prediction and stats
CampionatoRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Campo Sportivo di Chiesanuova, Chiesanuova
The Footlab model makes Fiorentino the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Pennarossa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pennarossa vs Fiorentino?
Fiorentino starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,138 vs 959).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pennarossa have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Fiorentino have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Cosmos(away) | 0-3 | Campionato |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Tre Fiori(away) | 1-1 | Campionato |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(home) | 0-0 | Campionato |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Cosmos(away) | 1-0 | Campionato |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Cailungo(away) | 2-1 | Campionato |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | La Fiorita(home) | 3-2 | Campionato |
| May 2, 2026 | La Fiorita(away) | 0-1 | Campionato |
| Apr 25, 2026 | La Fiorita(home) | 1-2 | Campionato |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Murata(away) | 4-1 | Campionato |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Faetano(home) | 1-2 | Campionato |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Pennarossa win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Fiorentino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | Pennarossa 2-4 Fiorentino | Campionato |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Fiorentino 2-0 Pennarossa | Campionato |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Pennarossa 1-0 Fiorentino | Campionato |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Fiorentino 4-0 Pennarossa | Campionato |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Fiorentino 4-0 Pennarossa | Campionato |
| Sep 15, 2023 | Pennarossa 0-1 Fiorentino | Campionato |
Last archived meeting: Pennarossa vs Fiorentino on Jan 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pennarossa score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentino score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennarossa | 0.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Fiorentino | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pennarossa sit 11th in Campionato (32 points from 30 matches) and Fiorentino sit 7th (46 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fiorentino | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 42 | 46 |
| 11 | Pennarossa | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 53 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pennarossa vs Fiorentino?
- The Footlab model makes Fiorentino the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Pennarossa.
- Where and when is Pennarossa vs Fiorentino played?
- Pennarossa vs Fiorentino is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Sportivo di Chiesanuova, in the Campionato.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.