Tre Fiori vs Virtus: prediction and stats
CampionatoRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC)Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini, Fiorentino
The Footlab model makes Virtus the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Tre Fiori. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tre Fiori vs Virtus?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Tre Fiori (1,393) and Virtus (1,489).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tre Fiori have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Virtus have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Drita(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Drita(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Forli(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Larne(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Larne(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Dila(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Dila(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 16, 2026 | La Fiorita(home) | 2-1 | Campionato |
| May 12, 2026 | Domagnano(away) | 1-2 | Campionato |
| May 9, 2026 | Domagnano(home) | 2-1 | Campionato |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tre Fiori win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Virtus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Tre Fiori 1-0 Virtus | Coppa Titano |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Tre Fiori 4-1 Virtus | Campionato |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Virtus 0-0 Tre Fiori | Coppa Titano |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Virtus 1-0 Tre Fiori | Super Cup |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Virtus 0-0 Tre Fiori | Campionato |
| May 24, 2025 | Virtus 1-0 Tre Fiori | Coppa Titano |
How many goals should we expect?
Tre Fiori score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Virtus score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Fiori | 1.3 | 1.5 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Virtus | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tre Fiori sit 1st in Campionato (73 points from 30 matches) and Virtus sit 2nd (72 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tre Fiori | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 63 | 13 | 73 |
| 2 | Virtus | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 76 | 20 | 72 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tre Fiori vs Virtus?
- The Footlab model makes Virtus the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Tre Fiori.
- Where and when is Tre Fiori vs Virtus played?
- Tre Fiori vs Virtus is played on September 18, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC) at Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini, in the Campionato.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.