Penuel vs Rebel: prediction and stats
Druha LigaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Svitlo, Kryvyi Rih
The Footlab model makes Rebel the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Penuel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penuel vs Rebel?
Rebel starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,541 vs 1,406).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penuel have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Rebel have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Metal Kharkiv(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Metalurh Zaporizhya(away) | 2-2 | Druha Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Poltava 2(home) | 1-2 | Druha Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Karbon Cherkasy(away) | 1-0 | Druha Liga |
| May 22, 2026 | Lokomotiv Kyiv(home) | 0-2 | Druha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(home) | 0-4 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | SC Poltava 2(away) | 0-2 | Druha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Karbon Cherkasy(home) | 3-5 | Druha Liga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Atlet(away) | 3-2 | Druha Liga |
| May 16, 2026 | Chayka(away) | 2-0 | Druha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Penuel win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Rebel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Penuel 1-1 Rebel | Druha Liga |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Rebel 1-0 Penuel | Druha Liga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Penuel 2-3 Rebel | Druha Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Penuel score 1.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Rebel score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penuel | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Rebel | 1.5 | 1.7 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penuel sit 4th in Druha Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and Rebel sit 7th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penuel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 7 | Rebel | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penuel vs Rebel?
- The Footlab model makes Rebel the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Penuel.
- Where and when is Penuel vs Rebel played?
- Penuel vs Rebel is played on September 4, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Svitlo, in the Druha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.