Cardiff Draconians vs Aberystwyth Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Aberystwyth Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff Draconians vs Aberystwyth Town?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Cardiff Draconians (1,547) and Aberystwyth Town (1,577).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff Draconians have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Aberystwyth Town have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 5-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Cwmbran Celtic(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Cardiff Draconians win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Aberystwyth Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town 3-2 Cardiff Draconians | FAW Championship |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Cardiff Draconians 3-1 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Aberystwyth Town vs Cardiff Draconians on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff Draconians score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Aberystwyth Town score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff Draconians | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff Draconians sit 10th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Aberystwyth Town sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff Draconians vs Aberystwyth Town?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Aberystwyth Town.
- Where and when is Cardiff Draconians vs Aberystwyth Town played?
- Cardiff Draconians vs Aberystwyth Town is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 20, 2026Caerphilly Athleticvsllanelli AFC
- Nov 20, 2026Swansea UniversityvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Nov 20, 2026Pontypridd TownvsCarmarthen Town
- Nov 20, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsNewport City
- Nov 21, 2026Treowen StarsvsAfan Lido
- Nov 21, 2026Pontardawe TownvsBaglan Dragons
- Nov 21, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsLlantwit Major