Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Newcastle Jets. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
On Elo ratings, Melbourne Victory has 1,896 points and Newcastle Jets 1,846.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne Victory
4-4-1-1- 44C. Nduka
- 8J. Valadon
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 10D. Genreau
- 23K. Jelacic
- 16J. Inserra
- 3J. Davidson
- 18F. Lino
- 4P. Ziereis
- 25J. Duncan
Newcastle Jets
4-1-4-1- 8P. Wood
- 14M. Burgess
- 28W. Dobson
- 43X. Bertoncello
- 11J. Lolley
- 27J. Recchia
- 23D. Wilmering
- 5J. Shaughnessy
- 22J. Bertolissio
- 39T. Aquilina
- 1J. Delianov
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne Victory have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Newcastle Jets have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Viettel(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 2-0 | Australia Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-3 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-7 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Melbourne Victory win, 3 draws, 2 Newcastle Jets wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 2-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 5-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| May 4, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 1-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 3-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 1-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Melbourne Victory 5-3 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets on Apr 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne Victory score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle Jets score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Newcastle Jets | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne Victory sit 11th in A-League (0 points from 1 match) and Newcastle Jets sit 5th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Newcastle Jets.
- Where and when is Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets played?
- Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets is played on December 12, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.