Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Chełmianka Chełm: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 27Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion MOSiR, Biała Podlaska
The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Podlasie Biała Podlaska. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Chełmianka Chełm?
Chełmianka Chełm starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,929 vs 1,795).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Podlasie Biała Podlaska have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Chełmianka Chełm have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jarosław(away) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hetman Zamosc(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | KSZO 1929(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naprzód(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisłoka Dębica(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Podlasie Biała Podlaska win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Chełmianka Chełm win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | Chełmianka Chełm 1-0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0-3 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Chełmianka Chełm 0-1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Jun 1, 2024 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Chełmianka Chełm 1-3 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Chełmianka Chełm vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska on Nov 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Podlasie Biała Podlaska score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chełmianka Chełm score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Chełmianka Chełm | 2.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Podlasie Biała Podlaska sit 8th in III Liga - Group 4 (7 points from 5 matches) and Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Chełmianka Chełm?
- The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Podlasie Biała Podlaska.
- Where and when is Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Chełmianka Chełm played?
- Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Chełmianka Chełm is played on April 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion MOSiR, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 17, 2027Siarka TarnobrzegvsStar Starachowice
- Apr 17, 2027Hetman ZamoscvsKSZO 1929
- Apr 17, 2027Wisłoka DębicavsWiślanie Jaśkowice
- Apr 17, 2027Czarni PołaniecvsWisła Kraków II
- Apr 17, 2027JarosławvsMoravia Morawica
- Apr 17, 2027Sokół Kolb.vsPogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
- Apr 17, 2027KS Wieczysta Krakow IIvsKorona Kielce II
- Apr 17, 2027Busko-ZdrojvsNaprzód