Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Star Starachowice: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 11Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion MOSiR, Biała Podlaska
The Footlab model makes Podlasie Biała Podlaska the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Star Starachowice. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Star Starachowice?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Podlasie Biała Podlaska (1,795) and Star Starachowice (1,764).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Podlasie Biała Podlaska have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Star Starachowice have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jarosław(away) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hetman Zamosc(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | KSZO 1929(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hetman Zamosc(away) | 0-3 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | KSZO 1929(home) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wisła Kraków II(away) | 2-4 | III Liga - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Star Starachowice win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Star Starachowice 1-1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2-1 Star Starachowice | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1-1 Star Starachowice | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Star Starachowice 1-0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
| May 10, 2024 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0-3 Star Starachowice | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Star Starachowice 1-1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Star Starachowice vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Podlasie Biała Podlaska score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Star Starachowice score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Star Starachowice | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Podlasie Biała Podlaska sit 8th in III Liga - Group 4 (7 points from 5 matches) and Star Starachowice sit 15th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Star Starachowice?
- The Footlab model makes Podlasie Biała Podlaska the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Star Starachowice.
- Where and when is Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Star Starachowice played?
- Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Star Starachowice is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion MOSiR, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 3, 2026Siarka TarnobrzegvsKorona Kielce II
- Oct 3, 2026Hetman ZamoscvsChełmianka Chełm
- Oct 3, 2026Wisłoka DębicavsPogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
- Oct 3, 2026Czarni PołaniecvsKSZO 1929
- Oct 3, 2026JarosławvsNaprzód
- Oct 3, 2026Sokół Kolb.vsMoravia Morawica
- Oct 3, 2026KS Wieczysta Krakow IIvsWiślanie Jaśkowice
- Oct 3, 2026Busko-ZdrojvsWisła Kraków II