Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, Morogoro
The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Geita Gold. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Polisi Tanzania (1,503) and Geita Gold (1,474).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polisi Tanzania have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Geita Gold have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Azam(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Tanzania Prisons(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 9, 2023 | Azam(away) | 0-8 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 6-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 28, 2024 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 25, 2024 | Fountain Gate(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Polisi Tanzania win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Geita Gold win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2023 | Geita Gold 1-1 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 4, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 1-2 Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 25, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 0-1 Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 6, 2022 | Geita Gold 3-1 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Geita Gold vs Polisi Tanzania on Jan 20, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Polisi Tanzania score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Geita Gold score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polisi Tanzania | 1.0 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Geita Gold | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polisi Tanzania sit 3rd in Ligi kuu Bara (7 points from 3 matches) and Geita Gold sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Polisi Tanzania | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Geita Gold | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold?
- The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Geita Gold.
- Where and when is Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold played?
- Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.