Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium, Dar-es-Salaam
The Footlab model makes Young Africans the favourite at 94%, against 5% for a draw and 1% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar?
Young Africans is a heavy favourite: 1,971 Elo points against 1,448 — a 523-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Young Africans have 13 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Kagera Sugar have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Coastal Union(home) | 4-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 3-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(away) | 3-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 3-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Azam(home) | 3-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Young Africans win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Kagera Sugar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | Young Africans 4-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 0-2 Young Africans | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 8, 2024 | Young Africans 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 Young Africans | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Young Africans 5-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Kagera Sugar 0-1 Young Africans | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar on Feb 1, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Young Africans score 2.9 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Africans | 2.9 | 0.5 | 10 | 5/15 | 12/15 |
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Young Africans sit 3rd in Ligi kuu Bara (6 points from 2 matches) and Kagera Sugar sit 15th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Young Africans | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar?
- The Footlab model makes Young Africans the favourite at 94%, against 5% for a draw and 1% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar played?
- Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.