Ponferradina vs UD Ourense: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada
The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for UD Ourense. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,594 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ponferradina vs UD Ourense?
On Elo ratings, Ponferradina has 1,967 points and UD Ourense 1,898.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ponferradina vs UD Ourense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ponferradina
4-2-3-1- 7C. Calderon
- 10Borja Valle
- 18José de León
- 15O. Vacas
- 19Pablo Muñoz
- 6Fede San Emeterio
- 4A. Jelbat
- 5Eneko Undabarrena
- 23A. Roig
- 24Koke
- 1Álex Domínguez
UD Ourense
4-3-3- 17Xabi Dominguez
- 10David Ferreiro
- 11Sergi Baldrich
- 16Álvaro Bastida
- 19S. Pardo
- 14R. Martinez
- 4J. Labrada
- 3Julio Cabrera
- 5L. Fernandez
- 6N. Gonzalez
- 1Manuel Vizoso
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 10:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponferradina have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; UD Ourense have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Llanera(away) | 1-1 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Barakaldo(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Zamora(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(away) | 1-3 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 0-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Barakaldo(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Ponferradina win, 0 draws, 0 UD Ourense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | UD Ourense 0-1 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: UD Ourense vs Ponferradina on Aug 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ponferradina score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; UD Ourense score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| UD Ourense | 0.7 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ponferradina sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (14 points from 10 matches) and UD Ourense sit 19th (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ponferradina | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 8 |
A question about Ponferradina vs UD Ourense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ponferradina vs UD Ourense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for UD Ourense.
- Where and when is Ponferradina vs UD Ourense played?
- Ponferradina vs UD Ourense is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.