Barakaldo vs Racing Ferrol: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo
The Footlab AI model makes Racing Ferrol the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Barakaldo. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,789 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Racing Ferrol?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Barakaldo (1,946) and Racing Ferrol (1,906).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barakaldo vs Racing Ferrol
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barakaldo
4-3-3- 27E. Mateos
- 19Ángel Troncho
- 9X. Sola
- 8Julen Huidobro
- 15I. Jimenez
- 21X. Fernandez
- 3Ander Zoilo
- 4O. Marotias
- 18Benat Gomez
- 22S. Calera
- 13Gaizka Campos
Racing Ferrol
4-3-3- 10Dani Ojeda
- 9Unai Ropero
- 18E. Eto'o Pineda
- 6Fabio González
- 14Jesús Bernal
- 16Raúl Blanco
- 2Migue Leal
- 17Álvaro Ramón
- 4Germán Novoa
- 5Eric Monjonell
- 1Lucas Díaz
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 04:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Racing Ferrol have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | UD Ourense(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 3-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(away) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontevedra(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Lugo(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Barakaldo(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Barakaldo win, 1 draw, 2 Racing Ferrol wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Ferrol 1-0 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Racing Ferrol 0-0 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Barakaldo 2-1 Racing Ferrol | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Dec 5, 2024 | Barakaldo 1-2 Racing Ferrol | Copa del Rey |
Last archived meeting: Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo on Sep 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barakaldo score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Racing Ferrol score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Racing Ferrol | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barakaldo sit 15th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (9 points from 8 matches) and Racing Ferrol sit 3rd (16 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 16 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
A question about Barakaldo vs Racing Ferrol?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Racing Ferrol?
- The Footlab AI model makes Racing Ferrol the favourite at 43%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Barakaldo.
- Where and when is Barakaldo vs Racing Ferrol played?
- Barakaldo vs Racing Ferrol is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.